The efficiency of the new reference rate in Türkiye

Abstract

The transition from the reference rate based on interbank offered rates, such as the Turkish lira interbank offer rate (TRLIBOR), to the risk-free rate (RfR), the Turkish lira overnight reference rate (TLREF), in Türkiye is a critical juncture, but it is not clear how it affects the market's ability to incorporate information precisely and promptly. Drawing on the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH), we examine the impact of transitioning from TRLIBOR to TLREF on the efficiency of Turkish financial markets. Our results reveal pronounced and time-varying persistence patterns in both reference rates and highlight heterogeneity in their efficiency, which seems influenced by fluctuations in national political conditions and monetary policies. TLREF consistently demonstrates higher market efficiency than TRLIBOR. The findings offer insights into the dynamics of market efficiency in Türkiye and highlight the broader implications of switching to RfR-based reference rate regimes.

Keywords

• C65
• E40
• E43
• G14
• G18