Научно-технические ведомости СПбГПУ: Экономические науки (Oct 2019)
Assessment of socio-economic efficiency of investments in transport construction with uncertainty Monte Carlo method
Abstract
The deepening of economic and social processes in the information environment on the one hand determines the need for timely development, and on the other hand, provides an opportunity to introduce modern digital methods in the field of evaluation and justification of the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure facilities. The development of the railway network in difficult geographical conditions and remote areas largely determines the significant investment, long construction time, and is accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty, which reflects the relevance of the study. The article presents a model of socio-economic evaluation of the effectiveness of investment in the construction of promising railway lines, taking into account the uncertainty of the main dynamic parameters of the project. A cumulative criterion for assessing the socio-economic efficiency of investments, taking into account the uncertainty for the period of commissioning of the railway line, has been developed. The analysis of uncertainty factors is carried out. The volume and cost of sales of the main goods transported by the railway line, as well as changes in the migration inflow of the population for its service were chosen as the key ones. A probabilistic model of cash flows, effects, results and costs in terms of the payback period of investments, taking into account uncertainty factors for the Monte Carlo method, is developed. The algorithm of probabilistic evaluation of socio-economic efficiency taking into account uncertainty of key parameters of the project by Monte Carlo method is presented. The calculation of socio-economic efficiency assessment taking into account the uncertainty factors of the construction of the railway line. The model of socio-economic evaluation of investment efficiency with uncertainty reflects the specifics of the investment project and takes into account the probabilistic uncertainty factors, which provides more accurate and reliable evaluation results than deterministic evaluation. The results of the study showed that the greatest importance on the performance indicators have the volume and cost of goods at the time of commissioning of the railway line. The factor of migration inflow of population in the area of construction of the line has a minor impact. Due to the high rate of return on investment, the investment performance indicator is more sensitive to selected factors in the early stages of evaluation (up to 10-15 years). Also, the payback period for the regional level, as well as the level of the enterprise is more sensitive than the payback period at the Federal level. The results of socio-economic evaluation of the efficiency of the investment project showed high efficiency, quick payback and social significance of the project
Keywords
