Trends in Precipitation and Temperatures in Eastern Slovakia (1962–2014)

Abstract

In this paper, the results of trend analysis applied to precipitation and temperature monthly data for the period from 1962 to 2014 is presented for the hydrological year (from November to October) in sixteen climatic stations in Eastern Slovakia. The topography of this part of the country is very diverse and it affects the climate. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test coupled with Sen’s slope was applied to identify the significant long-term climatic trends, as well as the magnitude of those trends. According to the present study, all climatic stations in Eastern Slovakia show a positive trend in temperature during the year and almost all of them show a significant positive annual trend in temperature. Seasonal and monthly trend analyses produced the same results. Trends in temperature are always positive during winter and spring. Trends in precipitation are also mostly positive during winter and spring, although some negative trends were also found during these seasons. The spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature trends was modelled in ArcGIS using geostatistical analysis. Abrupt positive trend shifts in annual precipitation and temperature time series were also investigated. An abrupt shift in precipitation at the highest climatic station, Lomnický peak, began around 1985 (+). Abrupt shifts in temperature began around 1970 (+) at the presented climatic stations. The extremity of the climate is confirmed by an analysis of the trends in wet and dry spells. Trends showed increasing tendencies in medium- and long-term wet spells.

Keywords

• precipitation time series
• temperature time series
• trend analysis
• Mann-Kendall statistical test
• spatial distribution of trends
• shift analysis
• wet and dry spell