Conspiracy theories and COVID-19: Coping mechanism or cognitive dissonance? A longitudinal study

Abstract

Introduction: Cognitive dissonance and selective exposure could explain how conspiracism could be adopted as a coping strategy in order to overcome salient threats. The expected psychopathological correlates could be investigated by empirical evidence. Methods: A longitudinal observation of participants recruited from the Italian general population was performed. A total of 606 observations were collected. At T0, 336 individuals were recruited (from April to June 2020) and pseudo-anonymized, 270 retained at T1 (from October to December 2020). Subjects were evaluated by psychometric valid tools, such as Brief Symptoms Inventory (BSI), and Impact of Event Scale (IES). The variables of interest included age, gender, education, occupation, relationship status, life-time infection status, belief in conspiracy theories, adherence to lockdown measures, and vaccine hesitancy. Group differences at baseline were assessed by Mann-Whitney U test and Hedges’ g for effect size. Differences in frequency for bivariate analysis was conducted by Fisher’s exact test and Odds Ratios (OR) were also reported. Linear mixed models were used in order to estimate longitudinal trajectories. Results: At baseline, individuals with a belief in conspiracy theories reported higher Somatization concerns in comparison to the rest of the sample (Hedges’ g -0.424, p 0.023). In turn, those expressing vaccine hesitancy reported higher Obsession-Compulsion in comparison to the rest of the sample (g -0.341, p 0.025). Conspiracism was also associated with higher odds of having previously contracted COVID-19 (OR 1.96, p 0.013), vaccine hesitancy (OR 4.35, p <0.001), lower adherence to social distancing behaviors (g -0.154, p 0.006), worry about the economic consequences of the pandemic (g -0.235, p 0.001). Longitudinal psychopathology was moderated both by vaccine hesitancy (for COVID-specific distress, minimum beta 0.303, maximum p 0.048), and conspiracism (Paranoid Ideation, beta 0.309, p 0.021). Discussion: Belief in conspiracy theories was associated with individual, social, and psychological dimensions. In particular, with a previous infection by COVID-19 and a worry about economic consequences of social distancing measures. In turn, this belief was also associated with vaccine hesitancy.

Keywords

• conspiracism
• covid-19
• cognitive dissonance
• selective exposure
• defense strategies
• coping mechanisms