Geographic clustering of travel-acquired infections in Ontario, Canada, 2008-2020.

Abstract

As the frequency of international travel increases, more individuals are at risk of travel-acquired infections (TAIs). In this ecological study of over 170,000 unique tests from Public Health Ontario's laboratory, we reviewed all laboratory-reported cases of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, and enteric fever in Ontario, Canada between 2008-2020 to identify high-resolution geographical clusters for potential targeted pre-travel prevention. Smoothed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% posterior credible intervals (CIs) were estimated using a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model. High- and low-incidence areas were described using data from the 2016 Census based on the home forward sortation area of patients testing positive. A second model was used to estimate the association between drivetime to the nearest travel clinic and incidence of TAI within high-incidence areas. There were 6,114 microbiologically confirmed TAIs across Ontario over the study period. There was spatial clustering of TAIs (Moran's I = 0.59, p<0.0001). Compared to low-incidence areas, high-incidence areas had higher proportions of immigrants (p<0.0001), were lower income (p = 0.0027), had higher levels of university education (p<0.0001), and less knowledge of English/French languages (p<0.0001). In the high-incidence Greater Toronto Area (GTA), each minute increase in drive time to the closest travel clinic was associated with a 3% reduction in TAI incidence (95% CI 1-6%). While urban neighbourhoods in the GTA had the highest burden of TAIs, geographic proximity to a travel clinic in the GTA was not associated with an area-level incidence reduction in TAI. This suggests other barriers to seeking and adhering to pre-travel advice.