Retrospective Post-Hospitalisation COVID-19 Mortality Risk Assessment of Patients in South Africa

Abstract

Background: This study explores the determinants impacting the mortality risk of COVID-19 patients following hospitalisation within South Africa’s Limpopo province. Methods: Utilising a dataset comprising 388 patients, the investigation employs a frailty regression model to evaluate the influence of diverse characteristics on mortality outcomes, contrasting its performance against other parametric models based on loglikelihood measures. Results: The findings underscore diabetes and hypertension as notable contributors to heightened mortality rates, underscoring the urgency of effectively managing these comorbidities to optimise patient well-being. Additionally, regional discrepancies come to the fore, with the Capricorn district demonstrating elevated mortality risks, thereby accentuating the necessity for precisely targeted interventions. Medical interventions, particularly ventilation, emerge as pivotal factors in mitigating mortality risk. Gender-based distinctions in mortality patterns also underscore the need for bespoke patient care strategies. Conclusions: Collectively, these outcomes supply practical insights with implications for healthcare interventions, policy formulation, and clinical strategies aimed at ameliorating COVID-19 mortality risk among individuals discharged from hospitals within South Africa’s Limpopo province.

Keywords

• survival model
• COVID-19
• parametric models
• semi-parametric frailty model