A Reliability Analysis Framework of Ship Local Structure Based on Efficient Probabilistic Simulation and Experimental Data Fusion

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive framework for the reliability analysis of ship local structures. Existing reliability analysis of ship local structures relies on empirical analysis without experimental validation. The presented framework improves the probabilistic simulation process by combining finite element analysis and the Kriging surrogate model to increase the computational efficiency in uncertainty quantification. In addition, ultimate strength test data are introduced to update the prior distribution based on Bayesian data fusion. A cross-deck structure of a ship is studied in detail to present the application of this work. The framework provides a valuable reference for the reliability analysis of ship local structures and promotes the development of reliability-based design code. The novelty of this paper is that it introduces the combination of testing and probabilistic simulation into the reliability analysis of ship local structures.

Keywords

• reliability analysis
• ship local structure
• probabilistic simulation
• Kriging model
• Bayesian data fusion