Conservation Letters (Jan 2021)
How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?
- Friederike C. Bolam,
- Louise Mair,
- Marco Angelico,
- Thomas M. Brooks,
- Mark Burgman,
- Claudia Hermes,
- Michael Hoffmann,
- Rob W. Martin,
- Philip J.K. McGowan,
- Ana S.L. Rodrigues,
- Carlo Rondinini,
- James R.S. Westrip,
- Hannah Wheatley,
- Yuliana Bedolla‐Guzmán,
- Javier Calzada,
- Matthew F. Child,
- Peter A. Cranswick,
- Christopher R. Dickman,
- Birgit Fessl,
- Diana O. Fisher,
- Stephen T. Garnett,
- Jim J. Groombridge,
- Christopher N. Johnson,
- Rosalind J. Kennerley,
- Sarah R.B. King,
- John F. Lamoreux,
- Alexander C. Lees,
- Luc Lens,
- Simon P. Mahood,
- David P. Mallon,
- Erik Meijaard,
- Federico Méndez‐Sánchez,
- Alexandre Reis Percequillo,
- Tracey J. Regan,
- Luis Miguel Renjifo,
- Malin C. Rivers,
- Nicolette S. Roach,
- Lizanne Roxburgh,
- Roger J. Safford,
- Paul Salaman,
- Tom Squires,
- Ella Vázquez‐Domínguez,
- Piero Visconti,
- John C.Z. Woinarski,
- Richard P. Young,
- Stuart H.M. Butchart
Affiliations
- Friederike C. Bolam
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne UK
- Louise Mair
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne UK
- Marco Angelico
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies Sapienza University of Rome Rome Italy
- Thomas M. Brooks
- IUCN Gland Switzerland
- Mark Burgman
- Imperial College London London UK
- Claudia Hermes
- BirdLife International Cambridge UK
- Michael Hoffmann
- Zoological Society of London London UK
- Rob W. Martin
- BirdLife International Cambridge UK
- Philip J.K. McGowan
- School of Natural and Environmental Sciences Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne UK
- Ana S.L. Rodrigues
- CEFE Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Univ. Paul Valéry Montpellier 3 Montpellier France
- Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies Sapienza University of Rome Rome Italy
- James R.S. Westrip
- Global Species Programme IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Cambridge UK
- Hannah Wheatley
- BirdLife International Cambridge UK
- Yuliana Bedolla‐Guzmán
- Grupo de Ecología y Conservación de Islas, A.C. Ensenada Baja California, Mexico
- Javier Calzada
- Department of Integrated Sciences University of Huelva Huelva Spain
- Matthew F. Child
- South African National Biodiversity Institute Pretoria South Africa
- Peter A. Cranswick
- The Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust UK
- Christopher R. Dickman
- School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Sydney Sydney Australia
- Birgit Fessl
- Charles Darwin Research Station Charles Darwin Foundation Galapagos Ecuador
- Diana O. Fisher
- School of Biological Sciences University of Queensland Brisbane Australia
- Stephen T. Garnett
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods Charles Darwin University Casuarina Australia
- Jim J. Groombridge
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation University of Kent Canterbury UK
- Christopher N. Johnson
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre for Australian Biodiversity & Heritage University of Tasmania Tasmania Australia
- Rosalind J. Kennerley
- Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust Channel Islands UK
- Sarah R.B. King
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado
- John F. Lamoreux
- Reston Virginia
- Alexander C. Lees
- Department of Natural Sciences Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
- Luc Lens
- Department of Biology, Terrestrial Ecology Unit Ghent University Ghent Belgium
- Simon P. Mahood
- Wildlife Conservation Society Phnom Penh Cambodia
- David P. Mallon
- Department of Natural Sciences Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
- Erik Meijaard
- Borneo Futures Bandar Seri Begawan Brunei Darussalam
- Federico Méndez‐Sánchez
- Grupo de Ecología y Conservación de Islas, A.C. Ensenada Baja California, Mexico
- Alexandre Reis Percequillo
- Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz,” Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
- Tracey J. Regan
- The Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research Department of Environment Land Water and Planning Heidelberg Victoria Australia
- Luis Miguel Renjifo
- Department of Ecology and Territory Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Bogotá Colombia
- Malin C. Rivers
- Botanic Gardens Conservation International Richmond UK
- Nicolette S. Roach
- Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences Texas A&M University College Station Texas
- Lizanne Roxburgh
- Endangered Wildlife Trust Johannesburg South Africa
- Roger J. Safford
- BirdLife International Cambridge UK
- Paul Salaman
- Rasmussen Family Foundation Santa Clara Utah
- Tom Squires
- Department of Natural Sciences Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
- Ella Vázquez‐Domínguez
- Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mexico City Mexico
- Piero Visconti
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis Laxenburg Austria
- John C.Z. Woinarski
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods Charles Darwin University Casuarina Australia
- Richard P. Young
- Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust Channel Islands UK
- Stuart H.M. Butchart
- BirdLife International Cambridge UK
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12762
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 14,
no. 1
pp. n/a – n/a
Abstract
Abstract Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) contains the aim to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure the degree to which this was achieved, we used expert elicitation to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993–2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010–2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation action prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and two to seven mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened and may still become extinct. Considering that 10 bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.
Keywords
- Aichi biodiversity target 12
- Convention on Biological Diversity
- Delphi method
- extinction risk
- species conservation
- IUCN Red List
