Social and ecological climate change vulnerability assessment in the Indus delta, Pakistan

Abstract

Due to seawater intrusion into the Indus delta, Pakistan under changing climate scenarios, the local communities of the delta are under threat of land and livelihood. The present study was initiated to analyze community perceptions about the social and ecological climate change vulnerability in the Indus delta, Pakistan. About 500 permanent residents of the delta were interviewed using a well-structured questionnaire. The IBM SPSS software was used to analyze the data based on the Pearson chi-square, Goodman, Kruskal's analyses, and Foster Greer Thorbeck (FGT) techniques. Analysis of the data revealed that the people in the delta had poor infrastructure and living standards, and limited social activities. Most of the people were illiterate, and the average family size was 11. On average, 4.7 members lived in a single room, and most of the houses were made of wood. Based on FGT techniques, about 88.4% of the population were living below the poverty line. The statistical analysis identified seawater intrusion and climate change as the most significant parameters affecting soil fertility, water quality, vegetation, mangroves, and livelihood. A large portion of the respondents strongly demanded the ensured freshwater flow to save the ecosystem, water resources, and the livelihood of the delta communities. HIGHLIGHTS Statistical assessment for impact of seawater intrusion and climate change.; Community-based perceptions.; Application of Pearson chi-square and Goodman, Kruskal's analyses, and Foster Greer Thorbeck techniques.; To prompt responsible policymakers to devise strategies for mitigation.;

Keywords

• coastal communities
• foster-greer thorbeck techniques
• kruskal's analyses
• livelihood
• pearson chi-square and goodman
• seawater intrusion