Climate Change, Threat Multiplier Effect, and Security: From Climate Security to International Security

Abstract

Climate change is a multifaceted and comprehensive issue addressed through its direct and threat multiplier effects. In the relevant literature, climate change’s direct and threat multiplier effects are studied through human, national, and international security aspects. In particular, the threat multiplier effect is an issue that affects more than one referent object of security, with its ability to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. However, few studies examine the threat multiplier effect, which can be complex and sometimes large-scale or multi-layered at more than one or two levels of analysis. Drawing inspiration from Graeger’s 1996 study on environmental security, this research highlights the limitations of perceiving climate change impacts solely through national or international security lenses. It advocates for a more holistic approach, focusing on the multiple connections between climate change, security, and social, economic or political vulnerabilities. Based on the analytical literature review, this study proposes a multi-level security framework for analysing the impacts of climate change. Central to the study is developing a multi-level systematic perspective that bridges the referent objects of security. In this regard, the study establishes the causal chains between human, national, and regional/international security by considering climate change’s direct and threat multiplier effects. Concluding that effective actions and strategies should be context-specific and suited to multiple levels of analysis, this study highlights the importance of considering climate change from the multi-level security framework.

Keywords

• climate change
• security
• threat multiplier effect
• multi-level security framework