Landslide Analysis with Incomplete Data: A Framework for Critical Parameter Estimation

Abstract

Landslides are one of the most common geohazards, posing significant risks to infrastructure, recreation, and human life. Slope stability analyses rely on detailed data, accurate materials testing, and careful model parameter selection. These factors are not always readily available, and estimations must be made, introducing uncertainty and error to the final slope stability analysis results. The most critical slope stability parameters that are often missing or incompletely constrained include slope topography, depth to water table, depth to failure plane, and material property parameters. Though estimation of these values is common practice, there is limited guidance or best practice instruction for this important step in the analysis. Guidance is provided for the estimation of: original and/or post-failure slope topography via traditional methods as well as the use of open-source digital elevation models, water table depth across variable hydrologic settings, and the iterative estimation of depth to failure plane and slope material properties. Workflows are proposed for the systematic estimation of critical parameters based primarily on slide type and scale. The efficacy of the proposed estimation techniques, uncertainty quantification, and final parameter estimation protocol for data-sparse landslide analysis is demonstrated via application at a landslide in Colorado, USA.

Keywords

• landslide
• parameter estimation
• uncertainty