Global mathematical analysis of a patchy epidemic model

Abstract

The dissemination of a disease within a homogeneous population can typically be modeled and managed in a uniform fashion. Conversely, in non-homogeneous populations, it is essential to account for variations among subpopulations to achieve more precise predictive modeling and efficacious intervention strategies. In this study, we introduce and examine the comprehensive behavior of a deterministic two-patch epidemic model alongside its stochastic counterpart to assess disease dynamics between two heterogeneous populations inhabiting distinct regions. First, utilizing a specific Lyapunov function, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic model is globally asymptotically stable. For the stochastic model, we establish that it is well-posed, meaning it possesses a unique positive solution with probability one. Subsequently, we ascertain the conditions necessary to ensure the total extinction of the disease across both regions. Furthermore, we explicitly determine a threshold condition under which the disease persists in both areas. Additionally, we discuss a scenario wherein the disease persists in one region while simultaneously becoming extinct in the other. The article concludes with a series of numerical simulations that corroborate the theoretical findings.

Keywords

• Disease dynamics
• Two-patch epidemic model
• Stochastic analysis
• Deterministic stability
• Exponential disease extinction
• Persistence of the disease