Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030.

Tsong-Yih Ou; Le Duc Huy; Jeffrey Mayne; Chung-Liang Shih; Hao Mai Xuan; Nhi Thi Hong Nguyen; Linh Nguyen Hoai; Linh Thi My Bui; Yao-Mao Chang; Abdikani Ahmed Abdi; Shih-Chang Hsu; Hung-Jung Lin; Chung-Chien Huang

Journal of Infection and Public Health (Jul 2024)

Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030.

Tsong-Yih Ou,
Le Duc Huy,
Jeffrey Mayne,
Chung-Liang Shih,
Hao Mai Xuan,
Nhi Thi Hong Nguyen,
Linh Nguyen Hoai,
Linh Thi My Bui,
Yao-Mao Chang,
Abdikani Ahmed Abdi,
Shih-Chang Hsu,
Hung-Jung Lin,
Chung-Chien Huang

Affiliations

Tsong-Yih Ou: Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Le Duc Huy: College of Health Sciences, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Viet Nam
Jeffrey Mayne: College of Health Sciences, VinUniversity, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Center for Global Health, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Chung-Liang Shih: National Health Insurance Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taipei, Taiwan
Hao Mai Xuan: The Master Program in Smart Healthcare Management, International College of Sustainability Innovations, National Taipei University, New Taipei, Taiwan
Nhi Thi Hong Nguyen: Health Personnel Training Institute, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue University, Hue city, Viet Nam; School of Nutrition and Health Sciences, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Linh Nguyen Hoai: Nutrition Department, Hue Central Hospital, Hue city, Viet Nam
Linh Thi My Bui: Faculty of Public Health, Da Nang University of Medical Technology and Pharmacy, Da Nang, Viet Nam
Yao-Mao Chang: School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Research Center of Health and Welfare Policy, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Abdikani Ahmed Abdi: School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Hargeisa Group of Hospitals, Somaliland
Shih-Chang Hsu: Department of Emergency, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Emergency Department, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
Hung-Jung Lin: Department of Emergency, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Emergency Medicine, Chi Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan
Chung-Chien Huang: School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Accounting, School of Business, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan; International Ph.D. Program in Biotech and Healthcare Management, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; School of Gerontology and Long-Term Care, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; School of Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Corresponding author at: School of Health Care Administration, College of Management, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 17, no. 7
p. 102443

Abstract

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Background: The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases. Methods: Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030. Results: The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030. Conclusions: Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.

Published in Journal of Infection and Public Health

ISSN: 1876-0341 (Print); 1876-035X (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases; Medicine: Public aspects of medicine
Website: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-infection-and-public-health

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