Potential impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal species endemic to Iran in southwestern Asia

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the period 2041–2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional‐to‐national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.

Keywords

• Achillea eriophora
• climate change
• endemic
• habitat suitability
• MaxEnt model
• Medicinal species