Quantitative Analysis of Influencing Factors on Changzhou Ship Lock Capacity

Abstract

The Changzhou ship lock is approaching its capacity limit. In order to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors that restrict the capacity of the Changzhou ship lock, this study proposes an influencing factor analysis method based on principal component analysis (PCA). This method estimates the confidence interval of ship passing time by fitting a lognormal distribution curve, eliminates redundancy in navigability data by combining the hydrological data and cargo load data, and quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of ship lock capacity under saturated operating conditions. The results show that the influencing factors of Changzhou ship lock capacity are classified according to their influence contribution rate as minimum water depth above the lock sill, operation direction, ship dimensions, draft, loading capacity, and actual load. The research results can provide a theoretical basis for improving the ship lock capacity and have application value for lock scheduling management.

Keywords

• Changzhou ship lock
• ship lock capacity
• AHP
• PCA
• lognormal distribution