Optimizing Prediction of In‐Hospital Mortality in Elderly Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Nomogram Approach Using the Age‐Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index Score

Abstract

Background To study the age‐adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) scale, which is a comprehensive quantification of multimorbidity coexistence, for the assessment of the risk of acute myocardial infarction death in elderly people. Methods and Results A total of 502 older patients with acute myocardial infarction were studied at Qilu Hospital from September 2017 to March 2022. They were categorized on the basis of ACCI into low (≤5), intermediate (6, 7), and high (≥8) risk groups. Hospitalization duration was observed, with death as the end point. least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to screen variables, 10‐fold cross‐validation was performed to validate the screened variables, a Cox regression nomogram predicting the risk of patient death was prepared, hazard ratio with 95% CI was calculated, a nomogram calibration curve was constructed, and a receiver operating characteristic curve, decision curve analysis, and a clinical impact curve were established. From 62 potential factors in a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, 12 were selected via 10‐fold cross‐validation. Retain variables with significant statistical differences in the Cox regression. A nomogram of the risk of death from acute infarction was constructed, and risk factors included ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation, atrial fibrillation, nicorandil, angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors, β blockers, and ACCI score, carbon dioxide combining power, and blood calcium concentration. Conclusions The ACCI score effectively assesses multimorbidity in the older patients. As ACCI rises, the death risk from acute myocardial infarction grows. The study's nomogram is valid and clinically applicable.

Keywords

• acute myocardial infarction
• arrhythmia
• death
• elderly
• multimorbidity coexistence
• surgery