Consequences of a Higher Carbon Price in the EU — Who Will Win, Who Will Lose?

Abstract

Abstract If the EU is to achieve its ambitious climate protection targets, prices for greenhouse gas emissions will rise noticeably in the next few years. This has economic implications not only for the EU member countries, but also for the rest of the world. This article presents the results of simulations covering 141 countries/regions and 65 economic sectors. The economic impact of the EU increasing its carbon price by $50 is calculated. In addition to the effects on real GDP and sectoral production, the consequences for the volume of emissions are also calculated. The carbon price increase is found to effectively bring down emissions, though with non-negligible leakage effects and at very heterogenous costs, both across countries and across sectors.