Understanding the Cognitive Components of Coastal Risk Assessment

Abstract

Nowadays, erosion and flooding risks represent a serious threat to coastal areas and this trend will be worsened due to climate change. The increasing concentration of population in coastal areas has a negative impact on the coastal ecosystem due to change in land use and the exploitation of natural resources, which has also increased exposure to coastal hazards. Risk assessment is hence a primary topic in coastal areas and are often affected by mismanagement and competition of interest between stakeholders. This paper presents an integrated model for coastal risk assessment as well as its application on a test site in the Puglia Region (Southern Italy). An innovative approach has been developed combining a traditional index-based model, exploiting a Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR), with stakeholder’s and policy makers’ engagement by using the Future Workshop method and complementary individual working sessions structured through the use of Fuzzy-Cognitive Maps. The study shows that stakeholders’ and policy makers’ risk perception play a key role in coastal risk management and that the integration of physical risk with social perception is relevant to develop more effective management following the basics of Integrated Coastal Zone Management.

Keywords

• coastal risk assessment
• DPSIR
• risk perception
• fuzzy cognitive maps
• climate change