Development of a new sternal dehiscence prediction scale for decision making in sternal closure techniques after cardiac surgery

Abstract

Abstract Background After sternotomy, the spectrum for sternal osteosynthesis comprises standard wiring and more complex techniques, like titanium plating. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive risk score that evaluates the risk of sternum instability individually. The surgeon may then choose an appropriate sternal osteosynthesis technique that is risk- adjusted as well as cost-effective. Methods Data from 7.173 patients operated via sternotomy for all cardiovascular indications from 2008 until 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Sternal dehiscence occurred in 2.5% of patients (n = 176). A multivariable analysis model examined pre- and intraoperative factors. A multivariable logistic regression model and a backward elimination based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a logistic model were selected. Results The model showed good sensitivity and specificity (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, AUC: 0.76) and several predictors of sternal instability could be evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression showed the highest Odds Ratios (OR) for reexploration (OR 6.6, confidence interval, CI [4.5–9.5], p 35 kg/m2) (OR 4.23, [CI 2.4–7.3], p < 0.001), insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) (OR 2.2, CI [1.5–3.2], p = 0.01), smoking (OR 2.03, [CI 1.3–3.08], p = 0.001). After weighting the probability of sternum dehiscence with each factor, a risk score model was proposed scaling from − 1 to 5 points. This resulted in a risk score ranging up to 18 points, with an estimated risk for sternum complication up to 74%. Conclusions A weighted scoring system based on individual risk factors was specifically created to predict sternal dehiscence. High-scoring patients should receive additive closure techniques.

Keywords

• Cardiac surgery
• Sternal dehiscence
• Prediction
• Scoring system
• Tailored technique