The Structural Analysis of Driving Forces to Adaptive Capacity with Climate Change in Iranian Cities (Ahvaz City in Focus)

Abstract

Climate change is an increasing concern for national and local governments around the world. The scope of the wide-ranging consequences of climate change has been shown in all aspects of human life and to different extents in cities and countries. Adaptation is the strategy agreed upon by the global community in facing climate change. This study aims to identify and structural modeling of driving forces of adaptation to climate change in the strategic city of Ahvaz, in southwest Iran. After identifying the factors and indicators through the study of records and a survey of the elite group, analysis and stratification were done using the combined interpretive structural modeling–decision-making trail and evaluation laboratory (ISM–DEMATEL) model. Finally, the main driving forces of adapting to climate change in Ahvaz were identified by Mic-Mac structural model. The research findings have shown among the five economic, social, institutional, physical, and technological factors, the economy has known as the most influential factor in adapting to climate change in Ahvaz. Also, among the 44 selected indicators, 10 driving forces were selected among them, and six driving forces, have economic and social backgrounds. Based on cross-impact analysis; the financial support for vulnerable groups, business improvement, alleviation of poverty measures, diversification of economic activities, social cohesion, and social trust in the government were recognized as the main drivers of Ahvaz city’s adaptation to climate change.

Keywords

• Climate change
• adaptation
• cross-impact analysis
• Mic-Mac analysis
• Ahvaz