The Impact of Weather Conditions on Mode Choice in Different Spatial Areas

Abstract

This article investigates if the impact of weather conditions on mode choice (walking, riding a bike, driving a car, and using public transport) differs across spatial areas. For this purpose, a survey-based data set with more than 500,000 trips in Germany was enriched with weather conditions prevailing at the closest weather station to the point of departure at the moment of the start of the trip. In addition, the points of departure of each trip were classified into seven different spatial areas. The analysis relied on separate multinomial logit models carried out for each spatial area with mode choice as the dependent variable. The independent variables consisted of non-weather-related factors such as sex, age, car availability, level of education, etc., and various weather-related variables such as air temperature, amount of precipitation, and wind speed. The results show that weather conditions have a rather marginal impact on mode choice, with the exception of riding a bike, which constitutes the mode of transport that is most affected by weather conditions in all spatial areas. However, the impacts tend to be smaller in densely populated urban metropolises than in peripheral, rural areas. In particular, precipitation and wind speed do not appear to affect cyclists in metropolitan areas as much as in peripheral, rural regions.

Keywords

• weather impact
• mode choice
• spatial areas