Application evaluation of theYHGS model products in a rainstorm forecast in central China

Abstract

In this paper, the rainstorm event on 4 July 2018 in central China was simulated using YHGS model product driven WRF, and the application capability of YHGS model product in this forecast was evaluated by comparing to the initial field simulation results with ERA-interim data. The conclusions are as follows. (1) WRF-YHGS has a certain ability to forecast the rainstorm in central China on 4 July 2018. The simulated large-scale circulation situation and the variation trend of water vapor budget are in good agreement with WRF-ERA. YHGS model product driven mesoscale numerical prediction is feasible. (2) The simulated skill of WRF-YHGS is worse than WRF-ERA, but WRF-ERA wet deviation of heavy rain is larger. There is a certain gap between the simulation results of each physical quantity in the two tests, and the difference gradually increases with the increase of integration time. (3) The difference between WRF-YHGS and WRF-ERA simulation results mainly comes from two aspects: the subsynoptic-scale motion between YHGS and ERA in the initial field and the prediction field error of YHGS global model.

Keywords

• yhgs model
• rainstorm
• initial field
• application evaluation