Hybrid Threats in Lithuania: Awareness of the Concept and Recognition of Their Forms of Realization Among Young People

Abstract

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have brought the concept of hybrid warfare, hybrid threats (hereinafter, HT), etc., to the political agenda of Lithuania and the West. Nevertheless, academic research and expert knowledge on the topic of HT, their perception, and identification of their forms of realization are scarce. Such research is complicated because the phenomenon of HT does not have a clear definition and is not based on a pre-defined set of characteristics. Thus, it is impossible to solve the HT problems in one universally acceptable way. In this context, knowledge and perception of HT among young people becomes particularly relevant because of their receptiveness and sensitivity to new information (or disinformation) and their important role in national security. The article presents empirical research on the knowledge and perception of Lithuanian youth about HT. The research aims to reveal the diversity of knowledge and the maturity of the perception of hybrid threats among Lithuanian youth. The definition of hybrid threats used in the article is: Hybrid threats are the malicious actions of external (foreign) actors to undermine citizens’ trust in democratic institutions by military and non-military means. Five focus group discussions (hereinafter, FGDs) were conducted between September 2022 and March 2023 - three with young people (aged 18-26, conscript age in Lithuania) and two with high school students (aged 15-19). The FGDs comprised a total of 41 individuals (22 young men and 19 young females). Conclusions. The concept of a hybrid threat is difficult to understand and rarely heard among Lithuanian youth. The most common primary association of HT is with cyber-attacks and propaganda. The least common associations of HT are with law, public administration, and diplomacy. The sectors of economy, energy, education and science were highlighted during the FGDs. Young people often perceive domestic problems as HT and do not associate them with the intentional malicious activities of external actors. The research did not reveal that the experience of participating in social activities and NGOs strongly influences whether and how much young people know about HT.

Keywords

• national security
• hybrid threat
• focus group discussion
• socialization
• perception
• young people
• lithuania