Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Oct 2011)
The anomalous high temperatures of November 2010 over Greece: meteorological and climatological aspects
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of the exceptionally high maximum (<i>T</i><sub>max</sub>) and minimum (<i>T</i><sub>min</sub>) temperatures which occurred during November 2010 and affected the entire Greek region. This severe "warm cold-season spell" was unusual because of its prolonged duration and intensity for the entire month and particularly the maximum temperature anomalies, which in comparison with the 1958–2000 climatological average, exceeded 5 °C at several stations. Comparing the observed record with future projections from three regional climate models revealed that <i>T</i><sub>max</sub> and <i>T</i><sub>min</sub>, on several days in November 2010, exceeded the 90th percentile of the simulated data. An examination of the atmospheric – synoptic conditions during this period showed that the anomalous high temperatures could probably be related to the negative phase of the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), with an intense pole of negative anomalies located over the British Isles, and to the east, a second pole of positive anomalies, centred over the Caspian Sea. Finally, an attempt is made to further investigate the mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon, for example, the thermal forcing in the tropics (Niño 3 or Niño 3.4).
