Housing Price-Vacancy Dynamics—An Empirical Study of the Hong Kong Housing Market

Abstract

This study uses time series regression models and dynamic panel models of five-class housing to investigate the dynamics of the housing price-vacancy relationship in Hong Kong, offering insights distinct from previous cross-sectional analyses that take new housing completions as a supply proxy, without considering vacant homes as a source of housing supply. Two major contributions emerge: first, the results support the hypothesis that housing vacancies exert a negative impact on housing prices, holding other factors constant. Second, new builds supply is found to have a positive effect on housing prices, which is in line with many previous studies, but it contradicts the prediction. The results challenge the use of land supply or new housing completions as the proxy of housing supply and put forward a novel suggestion of including vacant homes in the housing price analysis. Advanced approaches to collecting housing vacancy data are also discussed. These findings have significant implications for policymakers, urban planners, and real estate investors, providing valuable insights for crafting targeted interventions and informing investment decisions. This is one of the first time series and dynamic panel analyses of housing vacancy’s effect on prices.

Keywords

• determinants of housing prices
• housing supply
• new builds
• vacant homes
• Hong Kong