PROBABILISTIC BEHAVIORAL MODEL FOR COMPUTER NETWORK PROTECTION BASED ON ATTACK TREES

Abstract

The paper deals with the results of probabilistic model development for behavioral computer network. We present a method for the system state simulation immediately after the attack. To describe the threats we have selected an appropriate set of mathematical models for processes. The authors have proposed a modification of the attack trees theory including probabilistic attack trees, describing the ways to achieve objectives by illegal intruders and calculating the probability of the various types of threats. The proposed method enables to assess the levels of risks and vulnerability of the studied networks with the aid of the system behavior simulation.

Keywords

• probabilistic attack trees
• computer network behavioral model
• threat probability
• vulnerability level assessment
• attack simulation