Current Situation Assessment and Future Prospect of Long-term Care Insurance in Japan

Abstract

Japanese society has entered aging about 30 years earlier than China.Compared with the changes in the population aged 65-74 years and 75 years and above in Japan during 1980—2035 and the changes in the aging rate between Japan and China,the authors studied the evolution of the supply and demand balance of elderly care facilities in Japan,mainly studying the number of beds in elderly care facilities owned by the population aged 75 years and above per 1000 people in various regions of Japan in 2018;at the same time,according to the regional population structure of all age groups and the proportion of elderly care facilities used by all age groups,the number of elderly care facility beds from 2014 to 2018 was studied.The study found that the elderly population aged 80 years and older who need long-term care will rapidly increase after 2025,and if society continues to maintain the past trend of increasing demand for elderly facilities,Japanese society will need to continue to build elderl facilities.In China,the supply and demand prediction of such elderly facilities is essential for the development of elderly facilities.Given that older adults' health levels and values change over time,it is important to continue building models with higher accuracy while regularly revising predictive models.The situation 30 years ago and changes since then in Japan have important reference value when building a prediction model for long-term care needs in China.

Keywords

• aging society
• elderly facilities
• supply and demand relationship
• long-term care insurance