A routine blood test-associated predictive model and application for tuberculosis diagnosis: a retrospective cohort study from northwest China

Abstract

Objectives This study aimed to use the results of routine blood tests and relevant parameters to construct models for the prediction of active tuberculosis (ATB) and drug-resistant tuberculosis (DRTB) and to assess the diagnostic values of these models. Methods We performed logistic regression analysis to generate models of plateletcrit-albumin scoring (PAS) and platelet distribution width-treatment-sputum scoring (PTS). Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was used to analyze the diagnostic values of these curves. Finally, we performed model validation and application assessment. Results In the training cohort, for the PAS model, the AUC for diagnosing ATB was 0.902, sensitivity was 82.75%, specificity was 82.20%, accuracy rate was 81.00%, and optimal threshold value was 0.199. For the PTS model, the AUC for diagnosing DRTB was 0.700, sensitivity was 63.64%, specificity was 73.53%, accuracy rate was 89.00%, and optimal threshold value was −2.202. These two models showed significant differences in the AUC analysis, compared with single-factor models. Results in the validation cohort were similar. Conclusions The PAS model had high sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of ATB, and the PTS model had strong predictive potential for the diagnosis of DRTB.