Temporal Evolution of PM_2.5 Levels and COVID-19 Mortality in Europe for the 2020–2022 Period

Abstract

Air pollution has a strong impact on human health, from respiratory and severe pulmonary diseases to heart attack and cancer. During the 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, several peaks of mortality occurred, which could be related to particulate matter (PM) pollution events. The possible effects of PM (PM10 and PM2.5, with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 µm, respectively) on COVID-19 mortality have now been established. To better understand this relationship at the European level for the period 2020–2022, data from 16 representative locations in Europe (81 million people) with PM2.5 levels (µg·m−3) ranging from low to high values were analyzed using statistical methods. The analysis confirms a temporal relation between the peaks of PM2.5 exposure and COVID-19 mortality. The best correlation was obtained considering the history of exposure to PM2.5 pollution during a 2-month integration time coupled with a one-week delay for the COVID-19 mortality. Although the trend of COVID-19 mortality vs. PM2.5 levels varies among locations, the global trend was similar, giving an estimated mean value of a 40 ± 20% mortality increase per µg·m−3 PM2.5 increase. The stronger the positive (negative) gradient of the PM peak, the stronger the positive (negative) gradient of the COVID-19 mortality. These results indicate that a succession of PM pollution peaks could be more dangerous than permanent exposure to moderate pollution levels. Finally, PM number concentrations should be used in the future rather than the PM2.5 mass concentrations (µg·m−3), with the consideration of PM composition to better evaluate the effect of submicron particles on human health, particularly for other respiratory diseases. These results must be considered in the management of future pandemics.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• mortality
• PM_2.5
• air pollution
• Europe