Известия Томского политехнического университета: Инжиниринг георесурсов (Aug 2020)
STUDYING THE CHANGES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE USING WAVELET PHASE-FREQUENCY FUNCTIONS, PHASE-FREQUENCY AND PHASE-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF HELOCOSMIC AND CLIMATIC VARIABLES. PART 2
Abstract
The relevance of the research is caused by the need to establish the true reasons and patterns of global climate change on Earth. The aim of the researchis to apply the method of calculating temporal wavelet phase-frequency functions, phase-frequency and phase-time characteristics developed using the continuous wavelet transformations in order to establish patterns of changes in the global climate, in particular, consistency of changes in solar variables with self-organized Pacific decade, North Atlantic and Southern/El Niño fluctuations, changes in the ozone layer in the stratosphere and warming in the Arctic zone of Russia, tectonic processes of the Earth. Objects: time series of changes in solar and climatic variables, indices of North Atlantic and Southern/El Niño fluctuations, Pacific decadal fluctuations, series of Earth tectonic processes, series of changes in ozone standing in the stratosphere and air temperature in the Arctic. Methods: continuous direct wavelet transform of the source data using a complex wavelet with the calculation of time wavelet phase-frequency functions, phase-frequency and phase-time characteristics of variables, cluster analysis; assessment and analysis of densities of phase-time characteristics; evaluation and analysis of correlation coefficients between the phase-frequency and phase-time characteristics of variables in equal time intervals. Results. Calculating the correlation matrices between the wavelet phase-frequency characteristics of the variables and constructing joint graphs of the phase-frequency and phase-time characteristics of these variables at specified time intervals, it was found that the changes in solar variables, solar activity, volcanic eruptions of the Earth, carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations in the atmosphere strata of the stratosphere, earthquakes, tsunamis and natural disasters, changes in the Earth’s rotational speed and the duration of Earth’s days belong to class-stand volatilities variables. These variability are caused by the changes in the distance of the Sun from the barycenter. The author established a close relationship between the oscillatory processes of heliocosmic variables, solar activity and volcanic processes on Earth, changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration with self-organized processes of the North Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oscillation (El Nino), associated with changes in the Earth's rotational speed and the duration of Earth days. It was substantiated that the growth of the Earth’s volcanic activity in modern times leads to decrease in the ozone layer in the stratosphere, increase in solar radiation and surface temperature. In particular, these processes are strongly manifested in the Arctic zone of Russia. It is shown that the changes in surface temperature on Earth are caused by the changes in solar activity, the greenhouse effect, changes in ocean temperate and air temperature over land and ocean. The construction of images of temporal wavelet phase-frequency functions of phase-time characteristics of variables allows visualizing the history of changes of variables in time and in the phase-frequency domain and predicting these changes to a certain time horizon at characteristic frequencies.
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