Study on the Construction of Initial Condition Perturbations for the Regional Ensemble Prediction System of North China

Abstract

The regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) of North China is currently under development at the Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, with initial condition perturbations provided by global ensemble dynamical downscaling. To improve the performance of the REPS, a comparison of two initial condition perturbation methods is conducted in this paper: (i) Breeding, which was specifically designed for the REPS, and (ii) Dynamical downscaling. Consecutive tests were implemented to evaluate the performances of both methods in the operational REPS environment. The perturbation characteristics were analyzed, and ensemble forecast verifications were conducted. Furthermore, a heavy precipitation case was investigated. The main conclusions are as follows: the Breeding perturbations were more powerful at small scales, while the downscaling perturbations were more powerful at large scales; the difference between the two perturbation types gradually decreased with the forecast lead time. The downscaling perturbation growth was more remarkable than that of the Breeding perturbations at short forecast lead times, while the perturbation magnitudes of both schemes were similar for long-range forecasts. However, the Breeding perturbations contained more abundant small-scale components than downscaling for the short-range forecasts. The ensemble forecast verification indicated a slightly better downscaling ensemble performance than that of the Breeding ensemble. A precipitation case study indicated that the Breeding ensemble performance was better than that of downscaling, particularly in terms of location and strength of the precipitation forecast.

Keywords

• regional ensemble prediction system
• initial condition perturbation
• Breeding
• dynamical downscaling