Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine (Sep 2022)
Worldwide long-term trends in the incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease during 1990–2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis
Abstract
BackgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was previously a neglected disease that is now becoming a worldwide pandemic. A better understanding of its incidence and long-term trends will help to increase public awareness of the disease and the development of future prevention strategies.MethodsThe incidence rates of NAFLD during 1990–2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the following parameters: sex, age, socio-demographic index, and geographical region. Estimated annual percentage changes and joinpoint models were used to assess the long-term trend of NAFLD, and an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the extents of the age, period, and cohort effects.ResultsAdult males, postmenopausal females, Latin American populations, and people in developing countries had a high risk of developing NAFLD. The joinpoint model indicated a new trend of increasing NAFLD incidence in 2005. Age was a risk factor affecting NAFLD incidence, with this effect increasing in more-recent periods. Younger birth cohorts had lower risks of NAFLD.ConclusionsRecent prevention measures for NAFLD have achieved good initial results. However, it remains a high priority to increase the public awareness of this condition, develop its diagnostic criteria, identify cost-effective screening methods, and seek policy support to act against NAFLD, which will be a major public health problem in the future.
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