Predicting and Visualizing the Uncertainty Propagations in Traffic Assignments Model Using Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Abstract

Uncertainty can be found at all stages of travel demand model, where the error is passing from one stage to another and propagating over the whole model. Therefore, studying the uncertainty in the last stage is more important because it represents the result of uncertainty in the travel demand model. The objective of this paper is to assist transport modellers in perceiving uncertainty in traffic assignment in the transport network, by building a new methodology to predict the traffic flow and compare predicted values to the real values or values calculated in analytical methods. This methodology was built using Monte Carlo simulation method to quantify uncertainty in traffic flows on a transport network. The values of OD matrix were considered as stochastic variables following a specific probability distribution. And, the results of the simulation process represent the predicted traffic flows in each link on the transport network. Consequently, these predicted results are classified into four cases according to variability and bias. Finally, the results are drawn into figures to visualize the uncertainty in traffic assignments. This methodology was applied to a case study using different scenarios. These scenarios are varying according to inputs parameters used in MC simulation. The simulation results for the scenarios gave different bias for each link separately according to the physical feature of the transport network and original OD matrix, but in general, there is a direct relationship between the input parameter of standard deviation with the bias and variability of the predicted traffic flow for all scenarios.