Mush Amalgamation, Short Residence, and Sparse Detectability of Eruptible Magma Before Andean Super‐Eruptions

Abstract

Abstract Giant volcanic eruptions have the potential to overturn civilizations. Yet, the driving mechanism and timescale over which batholithic magma reservoirs transition from non‐eruptible crystal mush to mobile melt‐dominated stages and our capacity to detect a pending super‐eruption remain obscure. Here we show, using Sr isotope zonation in plagioclase crystals from three Andean large‐magnitude eruptions (Atana, Toconao, and Tara ignimbrites), that eruptible magma forms by amalgamation of isotopically diverse crystal populations and silicic melt without large‐scale reheating. In each case, crystals record large isotopic diversity in crystal cores, converging toward a common value in crystal rims that coincides with the composition of the rhyolitic carrier melt. Using diffusion chronometry, we show that the assembled magma resided pre‐eruptively in the crust for timescales of no more than decades to centuries for Atana and Tara, but up to several millennia for Toconao. These timescales and isotopic observations are consistent with the accumulation and destabilization of melt‐rich layers in crystal mush. While the prospect of capturing such melt lenses with most geophysical monitoring techniques is pessimistic, gravity modeling indicates that such structures are potentially resolvable. Our findings provoke a new assessment of the origin and hazards associated with large magnitude explosive eruptions.

Keywords

• super‐eruption
• caldera
• Sr‐isotopes
• diffusion
• forecasting
• plagioclase