Scientific Reports (Jan 2021)

A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes

  • Susanne F. Awad,
  • Soha R. Dargham,
  • Amine A. Toumi,
  • Elsy M. Dumit,
  • Katie G. El-Nahas,
  • Abdulla O. Al-Hamaq,
  • Julia A. Critchley,
  • Jaakko Tuomilehto,
  • Mohamed H. J. Al-Thani,
  • Laith J. Abu-Raddad

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81385-3
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 11, no. 1
pp. 1 – 10

Abstract

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Abstract We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.