Future changes in extreme temperature indices in Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Abstract

At present, research in climatology is mainly focusing on climate change and especially on global warming. Since climate change is already affecting large areas worldwide, it is important to study in details these changes at regional and local scale and to reduce its negative impact. The aim of this study is to analyze changes on extreme temperature indices over the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 in Cluj-Napoca city using a set of 21 indices recommended by Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices. Extreme temperature indices for observed and modeled data were calculated by employing ClimPACT2 software. Modeled data for daily minimum and maximum temperature was extracted from EURO-CORDEX Project database. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of three regional climate models (RACMO22E, RCA4, and WRF331F) were considered. Next we compared the average values of the historical period (1981-2010) with the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods for each scenario (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in order to obtain the future changes. The result of this study shows major changes for all the analyzed indices. The period 2071-2100 presents the highest changes under both analyzed scenarios.

Keywords

• climate change
• extreme temperature indices
• bias correction
• regional climate models
• Cluj-Napoca