Driving factors for changes in sectoral water consumption in the Haihe River Basin

Abstract

[Objective] In order to provide a reference for the formulation of sectoral water conservation strategies for the Haihe River Basin, it is urgent to systematically identify the leading driving factors for changes in water consumption by sector in the Haihe River Basin economic system and quantify their driving effects. [Methods] First, a set of input-occupancy-output tables with water resources of 49 sectors of the the Haihe River Basin at constant price in 2007, 2012 and 2017 were compiled. Based on these tables, a structural decomposition analysis model of changes in sectoral water consumption with 11 driving factors was constructed. [Results] (1) From 2007 to 2017, the improvement of economic development level was the main reason for the increase of total water consumption, but its driving effect weakened with time. The decrease of industrial production water intensity and the change of final demand structure of sectoral products were the main reasons for the decrease of total water consumption during 2007-2012 and 2012-2017, respectively. (2) Irrigation water intensity and the final demand structure of sector products were the most important factors for the decrease in water consumption of agriculture during 2007-2012 and 2012-2017, respectively. (3) The driving effect of production water intensity on the change of water consumption in the industrial sectors weakened over time. The growth of final demand for products of industrial sectors continued to drive the increase of water consumption in the industrial sectors. (4) The change of the production technology level and the total final demand structure had a stronger driving effect on the increase of water consumption in the service sectors than in the agricultural sector and the industrial sectors. [Conclusion] From 2007 to 2017, the reduction of total water consumption in the Haihe River Basin showed a trend of change from being mainly driven by water conservation technology to being mostly driven by final demand structure. From the perspective of inter-industrial comparison, the main driving factors of water consumption change in different industries had obvious sectoral characteristics. We recommend to formulate water conservation measures for each industry based on its main drivers of water consumption change.

Keywords

• driving factors|water consumption|structural decomposition analysis|input-occupancy-output tables|haihe river basin