Estimating IDF Curves Consistently over Durations with Spatial Covariates

Abstract

Given that long time series for temporally highly resolved precipitation observations are rarely available, it is necessary to pool information to obtain reliable estimates of the distribution of extreme precipitation, especially for short durations. In this study, we use a duration-dependent generalized extreme value distribution (d-GEV) with orthogonal polynomials of longitude and latitude as spatial covariates, allowing us to pool information between durations and stations. We determine the polynomial orders with step-wise forward regression and cross-validated likelihood as a model selection criterion. The Wupper River catchment in the West of Germany serves as a case study area. It allows us to estimate return level maps for arbitrary durations, as well as intensity-duration-frequency curves at any location—also ungauged—in the research area. The main focus of the study is evaluating the model performance in detail using the Quantile Skill Index, a measure derived from the popular Quantile Skill Score. We find that the d-GEV with spatial covariates is an improvement for the modeling of rare events. However, the model shows limitations concerning the modeling of short durations d≤30min. For ungauged sites, the model performs on average as good as a generalized extreme value distribution with parameters estimated individually at the gauged stations with observation time series of 30–35 years available.

Keywords

• extreme value statistics
• extreme precipitation
• subdaily precipitation extremes
• intensity-duration-frequency curve
• duration-dependent GEV
• vector generalized linear model