Analysis and forecasting of crude oil price based on the variable selection-LSTM integrated model

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, the crude oil market has entered a new period of development and the core influence factors of crude oil have also been a change. Thus, we develop a new research framework for core influence factors selection and forecasting. Firstly, this paper assesses and selects core influence factors with the elastic-net regularized generalized linear Model (GLMNET), spike-slab lasso method, and Bayesian model average (BMA). Secondly, the new machine learning method long short-term Memory Network (LSTM) is developed for crude oil price forecasting. Then six different forecasting techniques, random walk (RW), autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARMA), elman neural Networks (ENN), ELM Neural Networks (EL), walvet neural networks (WNN) and generalized regression neural network Models (GRNN) were used to forecast the price. Finally, we compare and analyze the different results with root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), directional symmetry (DS). Our empirical results show that the variable selection-LSTM method outperforms the benchmark methods in both level and directional forecasting accuracy.

Keywords

• Crude oil price
• GLMNET
• BMA
• Spike-slab lasso
• LSTM