Climate stress impacts on the reservoir inflows: a decision-scaling and IHACRES modeling approach in South Korean basins

Abstract

This study employed the Decision-Scaling (DS) approach and the IHACRES (Identification of unit Hydrographs And Component flows from Rainfall) long-term runoff model to investigate the impact of composite changes in rainfall and temperature on dam inflows at Chungju dam, Yongdam dam, Hapcheon dam, and Seomjingang dam basins. By analyzing flow regimes, rainfall scenarios, and temperature scenarios, the study revealed crucial insights into dam inflow and its response to climate stressors. The findings demonstrated that the rate of inflow increase in the study basins exceeded the rate of rainfall increase, indicating the significance of basin storage effects in contributing to runoff generation. The analysis of rainfall changes by quantile highlighted the dominant influence of the upper-high (UH) rainfall quantile, which led to higher flood inflow compared to other quantiles. Furthermore, scenarios with different rainfall patterns were compared, showcasing the predominant impact of UH quartile rainfall on the total inflow variation. The study also analyzed the runoff ratio, finding that changes in precipitation proportionally affected the runoff ratio. Overall, these insights contribute to understanding the sensitivity of dams to changes in rainfall and temperature, facilitating the development of strategies for sustainable water supply and flood management in dam systems. HIGHLIGHTS Suggesting the methodology to minimize the risk in taking a specific number of scenarios for future climate change projection.; 76 climate stress scenarios were developed.; Showing the specific model (IHACRES)'s long-term runoff simulating performance.; Evaluating IHACRES's modeling resolution for surface runoffs with respect to precipitation and temperature.; Expanding climate stress tests for local basins in South Korea.;

Keywords

• climate stress scenario
• decision-scaling
• discharge
• ihacres
• sensitivity analysis