Prediction of Actual from Climatic Precipitation with Data Collected from Northern Poland: A Statistical Approach

Abstract

Water is a basic element of the natural environment and the most important component in human water management. Rainfall is the main source of water. Therefore, determining the amount of precipitation reaching the ground using sensors is crucial information. Precise precipitation data are necessary for better modeling quality, as the observation data from weather stations are used as basics for weather model assessment. The authors compared precipitation from the Hellmann rain gauge (climatic precipitation, 1.0 m above the ground surface) measured throughout the year and the GGI 3000 rain gauge (actual precipitation on the ground level) measured from April to October. Measurement sequences from the years 2011–2020 were considered. The data for analysis were obtained from a weather station located in northern Poland. The authors analyzed the relationships between data from the two sensors. A comparative study showed that the measurements of actual precipitation are higher and there are strong relationships between actual and climatic rainfall (r = 0.99). Using the introduced coefficient it is possible to determine the full–year actual precipitation with high probability, taking into account the precipitation with a correction from the winter half-year and the actual precipitation from the summer half-year, which is of great importance in the calculation of the water balance.

Keywords

• actual precipitation
• climatic precipitation
• precipitation
• prediction
• Poland