Short-Term Load Forecasting with a Novel Wavelet-Based Ensemble Method

Abstract

“Short-term load forecasting (STLF)” is increasingly significant because of the extensive use of distributed energy resources, the incorporation of intermitted RES, and the implementation of DSM. This paper provides a novel ensemble forecasting model with wavelet transform for the STLF depending on the decomposition principle of load profiles. The model can effectively capture the portion of daily load profiles caused by seasonal variations. The results indicate that it is possible to improve STLF accuracy with the proposed method. The proposed approach is tested with the data taken from Ontario’s electricity market in Canada. The results show that the proposed technique performs well in-terms of prediction when compared to existing traditional and cutting-edge methods. The performance of the model was validated with different datasets. Moreover, this approach can provide accurate load forecasting using ensemble models. Therefore, utilities and smart grid operators can use this approach as an additional decision-making tool to improve their real-time decisions.

Keywords

• STLF
• wavelet transform
• smart grid
• ensemble method
• load forecast
• DSM