Time Series Forecasts for Traffic Accidents, Injuries, and Fatalities in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This paper develops three forecasting models for the number of traffic accidents, injuries and fatalities in Saudi Arabia. Like other developing countries, this country suffers from traffic accident problems. For example, in 1991 there were 3,232 deaths and 25,516 injuries in 37,127 reported accidents. Although there have been some efforts in studying traffic accidents in this country, more research is needed. This paper uses a time series technique in order to predict the numbers of accidents, injuries and fatalities in Saudi Arabia. Thus, three forecasting models are developed. According to these models, the trends for the number of accidents, injuries and fatalities show no decrease in the future. Consequently, the need for improving existing safety programs is vital, and more research to investigate the causes of the increasing trends is required.