Warm‐Season Drying Across Europe and Its Links to Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract

Abstract We study drying trends across the central latitude strip of Europe (47.5–52.5°N and 2.5–27.5°E) during 1980–2019 and their links to atmospheric circulation. Daily differences between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation (PET–P) calculated from the E–OBS data are used to characterize dryness, and atmospheric circulation is represented by circulation types classified using daily sea level pressure patterns from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Circulation types favoring dry conditions in vegetation season (April–September) are identified based on daily PET–P, and their temporal changes, seasonal variations, and links to trends in dryness in individual European regions are analyzed. In the early vegetation season (AMJ), drying trends are observed mainly in Western and Central Europe while in the late vegetation season (JAS), they are located predominantly in Eastern Europe. The dry circulation types include all anticyclonic types in all regions, as well as northeast to south (southwest in Eastern Europe) directional types. Trends of the dry circulation types correspond to those of dryness: the largest increase is found during AMJ in Western and Central Europe but during JAS in Eastern Europe. The results show that trends in dryness in the central latitude strip of Europe in the warm half‐year were associated with changes in atmospheric circulation, as the largest increases in frequency of dry circulation types occurred in the regions and months affected by pronounced drying. The increasing frequency of anticyclonic types in AMJ and reduced inflow of moist air masses from the Atlantic are the key factors supporting intensification of dry conditions in European mid‐latitudes.

Keywords

• atmospheric circulation
• drought
• Europe
• climatic water balance index
• potential evapotranspiration
• vegetation season