The US Trade Wars and the Potential for their Impact on the Economy of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Trade wars initiated by the United States worsen the global economic prospects and form an unfavorable background for the development of countries, dependent on the world trade, including Kazakhstan. In this regard, there is a need to evaluate the potential for the influence of the world economy situation on the prospects for the development of the kazakhstani economy, which is being undertaken in this article.To achieve this goal, the current policy of the US administration in the foreign trade sphere are considered, and assessing its impact on the world economy and prospects for its continuation as well. The impact of trade wars on the Kazakh economy is estimated in several directions - from the potential to reduce the country’s foreign trade to shocks that may be caused by the fall of world markets due to the escalation of the conflict of the world’s leading economies.The main result is a quantitative evaluation of the negative impact potential of trade wars on Kazakhstan in key areas on the basis of a scenario approach, with three scenarios, from moderate to crisis. The most likely scenario is the moderate impact of trade wars on the economy of Kazakhstan, and the main directions of their negative impact are the worsening of the balance of payments due to the reduction in exports, the devaluation of the tenge and the growth of public debt and budget expenditures for interest payment.

Keywords

• trade wars
• economy of kazakhstan
• protectionism
• foreign trade
• financial markets