Journal of China and International Relations (Jun 2018)
Consideration on China’s New Normal Economic Growth
Abstract
Slowdown in economic growth is the defining characteristic of the ‘New Normal’ of the Chinese economy post-2008. Explanations of the slowdown have coalesced around the theses of demand deficiency and profitability decline. This paper dissects the theoretical reasoning and empirical backings of these theses, with a view to clarifying the structural-institutional conditions that underpin the economic performance. On that basis, the paper arrives at the judgement that, long term, whether or not China is able to sustain medium-speed growth or even to resume high-speed growth hinges on the rivalry between two models of economic transformation that have both been operating in the economy in recent years: namely, a production-oriented model versus a speculation-oriented model.