Prediction of ecological security network in Northeast China based on landscape ecological risk

Abstract

The expansion of human activities has significantly increased ecological risks, which threaten the security of ecosystems. This paper takes Northeast China, a national typical ecological barrier region, as a case study to explore the evolution of the ecological environment under various future development scenarios. Considering the complexity of ecological assessments, a comprehensive approach integrating various methods is employed. This includes the Patch-based Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, a landscape ecological risk assessment index system, the Space Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, among others. These methods are used to dynamically assess changes in land use, landscape ecological risk (LER), and the layout of ecological networks. An integrated framework is proposed for identifying, constructing, and optimizing the ecological security network (ESN). The results show that the LER in Northeast China presents a “high in the middle, low around” distribution characteristic. High risk areas are mainly distributed in water bodies and construction lands with high landscape fragmentation and isolation, while low risk areas are primarily in the Northeast forest belt and Inner Mongolia grassland areas with lower landscape vulnerability and separation. From 2000 to 2020, the LER in the Northeast China has increased, primarily manifested in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Range areas in the northern part of the study region. Forecast results indicate significant differences in the evolution of LERs and the layout of the ESN under different socio-economic development scenarios. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the average LER in Northeast China is 0.2215. The area of ecological source lands is 302,405.56 km2, the length of ecological corridors is 179,024.71 km, with 339 ecological nodes and 410 ecological breakpoints identified. Compared with the natural development (ND) and urban construction (UC) scenarios, the EP scenario in Northeast China shows the lowest LER and the most ideal layout of the ESN. This study provides a reference for future land resource optimization and ecological restoration in Northeast China.

Keywords

• Land use simulation
• Landscape ecological risk
• Ecological security network
• Northeast China