Features development of olive trees during the growing season in the Southern coast of the Crimea

Abstract

Estimate climatogenic changes in phenorhythms of Olea europaea L. during the growing season in Southern coast of the Crimea carried out. The study used data of olive trees phenological observations and data climatic parameters during 1947–2020. It was established that in the ‘Nikitskaya’ cultivar during studied period of climate change the steady bias tendency to shift to earlier budbreak dates and fruit maturity has been observed since the 80s, the flowering has been since the 90s of the XX century, first leaves separated has been since the beginning of the XXI century and it differs in the highest rates. For the last 2001–2020 the tendency to shift earlier spring phenophases of budbreak and first leaves separated has increased 1.5–2 times. Phenological models using as input variable temperature and photoperiod were developed to predict dates beginning of full flowering ‘Nikitskaya’ olive cultivar. Forecast accuracy amount to 2.7–4.1 days. The expected future change those dates to end of XXI century are also shown.