An assessment of transmission dynamics via time-varying reproduction number of the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Fiji

Abstract

This study involves the estimation of a key epidemiological parameter for evaluating and monitoring the transmissibility of a disease. The time-varying reproduction number is the index for quantifying the transmissibility of infectious diseases. Accurate and timely estimation of the time-varying reproduction number is essential for optimizing non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders during epidemics. The time-varying reproduction number for the second wave of the pandemic in Fiji is estimated using the popular EpiEstim R package and the publicly available COVID-19 data from 19 April 2021 to 1 December 2021. Our findings show that the non-pharmacological interventions and movement control orders introduced and enforced by the Fijian Government had a significant impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the results show that many restrictions were either relaxed or eased when the time-varying reproduction number was below the threshold value of 1. The results have provided some information on the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that could be used in the future as a guide for public health policymakers in Fiji. Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers would be helpful for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness of the current public health policies that are being implemented in Fiji.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• time-varying reproduction number
• Fiji
• EpiEstim