Estimation and Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall Distribution and Potential of Türkiye and Its 25 Main Watersheds

Abstract

In this study, the seasonal rainfall distribution in Türkiye and its 25 main watersheds were estimated, and potentials were calculated and analyzed. Empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods were applied in interpolations. The calculations were made through EBK, which provided the highest estimation accuracy in all seasons. In winter, which is the season with the highest rainfall, Türkiye’s rainfall depth is 208.8 mm, and its volume is 162.87 billion m3. In summer, the season with the lowest rainfall, Türkiye’s rainfall depth is 61.7 mm, and its volume is 48.13 billion m3. The watersheds with the highest rainfall depth are Antalya (480.1 mm) in winter, Ceyhan (222.8 mm) in spring, and East Black Sea in summer (197.5 mm) and autumn (299.7 mm). Conversely, the watersheds with the lowest precipitation depth are Aras (74.9 mm) in winter, Little Meander (16.5 mm) in summer, and Konya in spring (131.3 mm) and autumn (86.2 mm). In summer, rainfall shortage is observed in all watersheds in the Central and Southern parts of Türkiye. As we go from the north to the south, the watersheds’ seasonal rainfall depths and shares become more irregular and variable.

Keywords

• seasonal rainfall
• watershed management
• empirical Bayesian kriging
• geostatistic
• Türkiye